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25 irresponsible speculations, assertions & questions about the coup in Turkey, Cemaat and the US role

04 August 2016
25 irresponsible speculations, assertions & questions about the coup in Turkey, Cemaat and the US role

1) A successful Cemaat coup would not have (?) brought stability to Turkey.

2) US cannot be ignorant or silly enough not to know this (at least if it had enough time to think about it).

3) If US gave Cemaat direct/indirect active/passive support thru the years it must not be for making it 2b able to make successful coups.

4) Cemaat itself would probably not want to make a coup as a first choice. Coup was in a sense imposed on Cemaat by RTE's pressure.

5) US may be caught unaware of this situation/question (meaning, Cemaat has to and about to make a coup, what to do about it) in the strategic sense.

6) US may have not thought deeply about the likelihood of a coup by Cemaat, and the likely consequences its failure and success.

7) It is highly likely that US knew about the coup b4hand but days, hours, months I don't know. If it's months then many of these points here maybe invalid

8) Obviously US did not veto or obstruct it. Did it try to discourage it? We don't know.

9) How likely is it that US says to Cemaat "this is not a good idea" but Cemaat still tries its hand? I don't know.

10) Or maybe US just said: "I won't stop U. I won't support you actively. If you succeed,I will do business with you. If you fail you are alone"?

11) Maybe it learnt about it only at a very late stage and could not comprehend the seriousness of what was about to happen and what to do about it

12) I say it is likely that US learnt about the coup if for no other reason then at least because Cemaat must have notified it (maybe at the last minute)

13) If not, then US must look, talk and act much more harshly about Cemaat now, no?

14) --> "What the fuck you think you are doing, from my territory for God's sake and without even telling me?" The body language and the choice of words by US officials make one think that they are not angry about Cemaat after the coup. Or may be they are just very good actors. Or they really have no idea who’s behind it and its likely (or just possible) consequences for US interests.

15) Many US observers like to think that US could not be behind the coup, could not have known about it.

16) Well, US has been behind many coups in the past.

17) US may not have demanded this coup and may not have actively encouraged it but it is not entirely impossible to imagine that it remained neutral.

18) But this assumes that they have thought Erdoğan, a strange combination of a useful idiot and a pain the in the ass, and more pain recently) will easily be gone and a quick return to "normalcy"

19) But Cemaat would probably not want to return to "normalcy" in case they succeeded. Could US be unaware of that?

20) A Cemaat (or Fethullah) Republic imposed thru a coup, how could US want or assent to it? What American interest would it serve or contribute?

21) It looks obvious to me that Cemaat cannot impose its will on Turkey by the force of a gun.

22) Though it could and was about achieve that (Cemaat Republic) if they had not went into conflict with RTE, by the sheer number of adherents in the bureaucracy, the new wave coming below, the fear it aroused in almost all sectors of Turkish society and politics, superior organizational capability, the secrecy, discipline and ruthlessness they were able to sustain etc.

23) Obviously these are all speculations. They may be very away from what had actually happened. I don't insist on any of them except maybe the first.

24) I don't think US knew nothing about this coup but this may still be more likely than a %100 US-planned-directed coup scenario, at least if we mean Obama when we say "US" in this context.

25) How about a scenario that a faction inside the US including some people in very high places being behind the coup but not Obama? I don't know. But why? And how? If so who are these people? What binds them together? Material interest? Ideology? Being fool enough to be fooled by the image Cemaat tries to give about itself? Pro-Israeli feeling? Were they thinking Cemaat are the good guys, can succeed and will serve US and or Israeli interests in Turkey and around the world? Anyway I have to stop here.