The winner of the European Parliament elections held on last May in the United Kingdom, which continues with the process of withdrawing from the European Union, was the Brexit Party.The party received 30.74[1] per cent of the votes in the United Kingdom, surpassing the Conservatives and Labour Party, two of the strongest parties in the country.It cannot be denied that this is a great success for the Brexit Party, which was established in February 2019, to come up as the leading party in an election held this soon after it was established.In addition, the success of the Brexit party is important from two otherperspectives.First is the fact that party's vote rate surpassed the votes of the Liberal Democrats, which came up second with 19.75 per cent, by a noteworthy margin; and the second one is that it surpassed the former 26.77[2] per cent vote of UKIP, which had won the 2014 European Parliament elections in the United Kingdom.
The Brexit Party is an anti-European Union party and wants the outcome of the referendum held in 2016, based on opposition to the European Union and for leaving the European Union to be respected and for the United Kingdom to leave the EU as soon as possible.In addition, the Brexit Party is against arrangements for the United Kingdom to stay in the Single Market and the customs union after the withdrawal; which means that for the Brexit Party, the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union should be “certain and clear”.
Under these conditions, can the success of the Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections be considered as the success of those in the United Kingdom who are anti-European/in favour of leaving the European Union? If, according to the results of the European Parliament elections in the United Kingdom, a second European Union referendum were to be held, would the results be the same as the first referendum, for leaving the European Union?
The success displayed by the Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections, if these elections are to be evaluated as a “soft referendum on Brexit”[3], can at first glance be considered as the victory of Eurosceptics.Such a reading leads to a conclusion that after the victory of Brexit Party, the possibility of holding a second European Union referendum in the United Kingdom has disappeared completely and the possibility that the withdrawal from the European Union will take place in the form of a No Deal-Hard Brexit has increased.
However, a deep analysis of the European Parliament elections in the United Kingdom reveals that assumptions made at first glance of the Brexit Party’s success do not exactly represent the truth.
For a detailed analysis of the elections results, voting rates of the parties which have loud and clear positions on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union should be examined while leaving aside the Conservatives, who want the United Kingdom to leave the European Union but postpone the date, and the Labour Party, which is far from displaying a clear attitude on leaving the European Union.
These parties are; the Brexit Party, UKIP, Liberal Democrats, "Change UK" and Greens.
The Brexit Party and UKIP represent the anti-European Union and Liberal Democrats, “Change UK” and the Greens represent the pro-EU side.Theproportion of thevotethesepartiesgot in the European Parliament elections are shown in the table below:
|
Vote of Anti-EU parties
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Vote of Pro-EU parties
|
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The Brexit Party
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30.74%
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Liberal Democrats
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19.75%
|
|
UKIP
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3.21%
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The Greens
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11.76%
|
|
|
|
Change UK
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3.31%
|
Source:https://election-results.eu/united-kingdom/
A look at this table shows that, even if by a low margin, the total vote of the pro-European Union parties surpass the total votes of the two parties which have a clear anti-European Union attitude.On theassumptionthat votes won by these parties conform to their position on the subject of the European Union, the number of voters in the United Kingdom who are clearly in favour of the European Union surpass the number of voters who are clearly against the European Union.Consequently, the victory of the Brexit Party does not show that the anti-EU sentiment in the country is stronger than the pro-EU attitude; and it is not guaranteed that if a second referendum were to be held on European Union membership, the results will be the same as the first one, towards leaving the European Union.
Conclusion
The result of the European Parliament elections in the United Kingdom indicates that voters expect a clear stance from parties on the subject of Brexit.The parties which have clear positions regarding the European Union have received majority of the votes.Meanwhile, the Conservatives and the Labour Party, both of which got over 20 per cent of the vote in the European Parliament elections in 2014, lost votes,with the anti-EU Brexit Party and pro-European Union Liberal Democrats coming up as the first and second party in the European Parliament elections.The Brexit Party, which became the leading party, is labelled the “Undoubted Winner” and the Liberal Democrats, who received more votes than anticipated, are labelled the "Emotional winners”[4].
The fact that two parties, which have completely dissimilar positions on the subject of Brexit, emerged as the first and second parties in the European Parliament elections is a clear example of the polarisation caused by the Brexit in the United Kingdom.
[1]https://www.election-results.eu/united-kingdom/, 11 June 2019
[2]https://election-results.eu/national-results/united-kingdom/2014-2019/constitutive-session/ 11 June 2019
[3]https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1131241/european-elections-results-what-brexit-party-win-mean-for-brexit, 26 May 2019
[4]https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/27/five-things-we-have-learned-from-uk-european-elections, 27 May 2019
This article previously published in Diplomatic Observer July 2019