Guardian gazetesinin ödüllü Orta Doğu muhabiri 10 gün önceki yazısında Musul harekatının zorluk ve risklerini yazmıştı:
‘…. gnawing doubts remain over what comes next.
While military moves are at an advanced stage, the questions of how to provide for up to 1.3 million refugees, or how to re-establish governance in a city brutalised by two years of tyranny is increasingly consuming aid agencies and regional officials, some of whom believe that whatever emerges from Mosul will determine the fate of Iraq.
Sectarian concerns have dominated pre-battle planning, with Shia militias and Kurdish peshmerga forces who have played vital roles in the war against Isis not slated to enter the largely Sunni Muslim city. The Iraqi military, which is largely made up of Shia soldiers and officers, will take the lead in the battle, with up to three divisions – roughly 45,000 men – advancing from positions near the Qaiyara airbase 30 miles south.
Isis is thought to have between 5,000 and 8,000 members prepared to defend their last redoubt in Iraq, where in June 2014 the leader of Isis, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, used the city’s Nouri mosque to declare the establishment of a caliphate and himself as leader. Since then, Mosul has been central to the group’s ambitions to spread its ruthless interpretation of Islamic law throughout the Arab world and beyond.
An Iraqi security source said: “When you have one million people you have to be precise with each attack; it requires really good intelligence that will slow things down. Anyone who says it is going to take two weeks or two months does not know. We will see early on when the process has started, but we do not want to end up like Ramadi with 80% of the city destroyed, and then mass unemployment, because that is a breeding ground for terrorism. You could just end up with a more brutal version of [Isis].”... ’
Martin Chulov ve Patrick Wintour, “Attack on Isis stronghold Mosul may have troubled aftermath,” Guardian, 7 Ekim 2016.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/07/iraqi-forces-prepare-for-assault-on-isis-stronghold-mosul
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/07/iraq